In a recent episode of The Ali.TM Podcast, hosted in Pakistan, journalist and geopolitical analyst Carl Zha provided an in-depth analysis of the recent India-Pakistan aerial skirmish, revealing how Pakistan’s Air Force outmaneuvered India’s advanced Rafale jets with Chinese-supplied J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles. The conflict, sparked by India’s “surgical strike” following the April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians, has reshaped perceptions of military technology, regional alliances, and media narratives.

A Politically Charged Strike

The skirmish began when India launched missiles and drones on May 7, 2025, targeting alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab, killing at least 51 people, including 11 soldiers and several children. Carl Zha argued that India’s operation, dubbed Operation Sindhoor, was a politically motivated move to appease domestic outrage after the Kashmir attack, timed suspiciously after a high-profile diplomatic visit. India’s decision to avoid targeting Pakistani military installations initially suggested an intent to limit escalation, but this underestimated Pakistan’s preparedness.

Zha highlighted that Indian politicians, driven by public demand for revenge, assumed they could strike with impunity. However, Pakistan’s Air Force was on high alert, with planes patrolling the border and advanced systems ready. This miscalculation led to what Zha described as a “foolhardy” operation, doomed by India’s overconfidence.

Pakistan’s Technological Edge

Pakistan’s decisive response showcased the prowess of its Chinese-supplied arsenal. The J-10C fighter jets, acquired in 2022, and PL-15 air-to-air missiles, with a potential range of 300 km, proved superior in beyond-visual-range combat. Unlike traditional dogfights, this battle saw no visual contact—pilots relied on radar and missile systems, with Pakistan’s Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) providing critical situational awareness.

The AWACS, used effectively in joint Shaheen 2023 exercises with China’s PLA Air Force, allowed Pakistan to detect Indian jets, including Rafales, before they could respond. Each J-10C carried up to 10 PL-15 missiles, dwarfing the Rafale’s two Meteor missiles, giving Pakistan overwhelming firepower. Zha noted that Pakistan’s electronic warfare capabilities, including radar jamming and intercepted communications, left Indian pilots “flying blind,” contributing to confirmed losses, including at least one Rafale and other aircraft like MiG-29s and SU-30s.

The China-Pakistan “Iron Brother” Alliance

The skirmish underscored the strength of the China-Pakistan alliance, forged after the 1962 India-China border war and deepened by shared strategic interests. Unlike U.S. arms sales, which restricted Pakistan’s F-16s from use against India, China’s J-10Cs and JF-17s came with no such limitations, allowing Pakistan full operational freedom. Joint exercises with China, including Shaheen 2023, honed Pakistan’s ability to integrate AWACS, J-10Cs, and PL-15s into a cohesive system, outmatching India’s less coordinated approach.

This alliance extends beyond military cooperation. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of bilateral ties, remains resilient despite tensions, with plans to expand into Afghanistan, further challenging India’s regional influence. Zha emphasized that Pakistan’s shift to China’s orbit, especially after U.S. sanctions post-Cold War, has made it a reliable partner for Islamabad, unlike India’s strained ties with Western allies.

Indian Media’s “Bizarro World”

Zha’s sharpest critique targeted Indian media, which he accused of painting a “bizarro world” narrative, claiming victories despite international reports confirming Indian losses. Outlets like CNN and Reuters verified Pakistan’s downing of Indian jets, yet Indian media insisted on unverified claims, misleading their audience. This systemic disinformation, Zha argued, contrasts with Pakistan’s transparent briefings, which included audio intercepts of panicked Indian pilots, showcasing superior electronic warfare capabilities.

Global Military Industry Impact

The skirmish has reverberated through the global military industry. Pakistan’s success with the cost-effective J-10C ($40-50 million per unit) versus India’s pricey Rafales ($284 million with training and parts) has challenged Western skepticism about Chinese weaponry. Countries like Egypt are now eyeing J-10Cs, signaling a potential shift in the global south toward affordable, reliable Chinese systems. This battle has proven that system integration—combining AWACS, missiles, and trained pilots—trumps individual platform superiority, a lesson for militaries worldwide.

Geopolitical Fallout

The conflict has reinstated the “India-Pakistan hyphenation” that New Delhi sought to escape as it positioned itself as a global superpower. India’s failure to achieve a decisive victory, coupled with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s insistence on continuing Operation Sindhoor, suggests ongoing tensions despite a May 10 ceasefire. Pakistan, meanwhile, has bolstered its military’s domestic image, with analysts noting a surge in public support for its defense against Indian aggression.

However, the ceasefire remains fragile, with reports of drone sightings and ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC). Pakistan’s military spokesperson claimed strikes on 26 Indian facilities, indicating a robust counteroffensive. As U.S. influence wanes under tariff-heavy policies, Pakistan’s reliance on China grows, reshaping South Asian geopolitics.